Doctors for Disaster Preparedness

I hope you are able to find a respite from the heat. We’ve had “excessive heat” warnings in Tucson for several days straight.

But as the graph shows, it is not unprecedented. U.S. maximum temperatures in June 1933 were higher. Of course, one can argue that it was just “weather” then, owing to Dust Bowl conditions, but it is “climate change” now. (Note that connecting two points, as in the graph, does not make a trend. The direction of a trend depends on the starting and stopping points. If we started in 1776, near the end of the Little Ice Age, it is definitely warmer now.)

The mean of maximum U.S. temperatures as guesstimated by NOAA has been fluctuating between about 78 and 86 degrees F. Many factors contribute to these differences of about 8 degrees. The gradual small rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has nothing to do with them.

Heat waves are a serious problem for people who live in cities. The urban heat island (UHI) effect can raise temperatures 10 or more degrees above what they would be in the countryside. Increasing urbanization likely accounts for 40 percent of reported warming. The ways to mitigate it do not involve reducing “carbon footprints.” Increasing green spaces, rooftop gardens, reflective roofing materials, and permeable pavements are helpful measures.

Looking at global rather than U.S. temperatures in the graph below, we see that there is a big spike in 2024. This is explained by the 2022 eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, which injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor, from 146 trillion grams (40 billion gallons) of water, into the stratosphere. This is equal to about 10 percent of the water vapor normally present there. Water vapor is by far the most important “greenhouse gas.”

Local factors and natural phenomena affect the weather and the climate—while the mainstream media only reports  about carbon dioxide, which is at most a minor contributor.

Additional information:

• Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES): ceres-science.com
• Climate—the Movie (the Real Truth)
• NOAA’s June 2024 data shows no “record high” U.S maximum temperature.
• “Look at the trend.” Which trend?

Over the noise about the Trump guilty verdict, have you seen any reports about developments in the Russia/Ukraine war?

As Russia continues to make slow progress on the ground, longer-range weapons are being supplied to Ukraine, along with proposals to strike targets within Russia. The defense minister of the Netherlands said that Ukraine could use the F-16s it sends in any way it likes.

The top map shows the location of Russian early warning system (EWS) radars and the area over which they can detect an incoming ballistic missile. The lower one shows the area covered by two installations that were reportedly attacked. At least one is said to be out of action awaiting repairs.

A degraded EWS leaves a country subject to a decapitating strike. Cold War doctrine calls for a devastating response, which has so far not materialized. But against what? NATO is maintaining plausible deniability.

Ascending the escalatory ladder without dire consequences so far “has led to a situation where many western decision-makers sincerely believe they can act with impunity, totally disregarding Russian warnings, while considering the likelihood of nuclear war an impossibility.”

The U.S. has no system to destroy nuclear warheads about to impact an American city. The batteries of Nike missiles that used to ring cities in the 1950s (the Nike-Hercules was nuclear-tipped) were all decommissioned.

The Soviet Union did not abandon anti-ballistic missile defense using nuclear warheads. In 2001, Russia was said to have a de facto missile-defense network with at least 8,000 modern interceptors, tipped with small nuclear warheads that do not require bullet-hitting-bullet accuracy. As of 2020, there were plans to double the firepower capabilities of the system defending Moscow.

There are many unknowns about Russian and U.S. capabilities, and the long-lasting MAD doctrine credited with keeping the peace for decades is being challenged.

Presidential candidate Donald Trump said that nuclear annihilation is the real threat, in commenting on President Joe Biden’s recent speech, in which he said global warming posed the “greatest existential threat to our country.” Neither candidate is talking about strategic or civil defense. The Biden Administration has authorized Ukraine to use U.S. weapons for “limited” strikes within Russia.

Additional Information: D.I.Y. Civil Defense

I hope you are having a nice Memorial Day, celebrating the beginning of summer.  But do not forget that Memorial Day is about those who fell in war.

Americans tend to think that war is “Over There.” And that nuclear war is unthinkable, but if it happened, they erroneously think that it would inevitably wipe us out so there is nothing to do.

Some current events to consider:

• Russia is conducting tactical nuclear exercises in Belarus.
• NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg advocates lifting restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons against military targets inside Russia.
• One of Russia’s strategic “over the horizon” radars, designed to detect ballistic missiles launched from Western Europe, the Mediterranean, or the Middle East, was struck, apparently by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).
• Attacking a component of the strategic nuclear forces, which is considered an effort to facilitate a sneak attack, is forbidden by the rules of the Cold War. It could provoke a preemptive first strike.
• French president Macron has threatened to send French (not   NATO) troops to Ukraine and may have already done so. Direct involvement by NATO would be a major escalation.
• American ATACMS missiles were evidently used against a Russian S-300 battery in Donetsk. Analyst Will Schryver thinks this must be a “100% NATO operation”.

On another front, there is grave concern that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon “in a few years.” What if it already has a few? It has nuclear friends—and no one knows for sure what happened to all of the Soviet stockpile. It’s possible that the threat of exploding a nuke hidden in a world capital is a deterrent strategy.

Some use of a nuclear weapon, by accident or design, appears likely. No matter where it happens, worldwide radiation panic could ensue. Inform yourself about radiation effects. It’s best to have your own radiation monitor. The safe/not safe radiation detector card—retail price $45—will  be unobtainable once the panic starts. The best use for limited supplies is to equip first responders NOW. Ten can be obtained free for first responders who request them on organization letterhead (http://www.ki4u.com/products1.php).

Additional information:

• Guidelines for expedient dot monitors  
• Myths and facts about nuclear weapons: first two chapters (about 20 pp) of Nuclear War Survival Skills
• Don’t plan to die: The Good News about Nuclear Destruction YouTube

Are you more worried about climate change than nuclear war? In a Washington Post op-ed, George Will observes that negligible public anxiety accompanies the intensifying danger of global incineration from nuclear war.

Like most commentators, Will assumes that the only possible outcome after the first salvo is global extinction. He refers to journalist Annie Jacobsen’s March 2024 book Nuclear War: a Scenario. This revives the 1980s climate catastrophe theory of nuclear winter.

Continue reading “WW III: Ground Zero. Population: 5”