Evidence-Based Forecasting for Global Warming. J. Scott Armstrong, PhD

From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 14, 2013, Houston Texas.

J. Scott Armstrong (Ph.D., MIT, 1968), professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, is a proponent of evidence-based management. He is the founder of the
Journal of Forecasting , the International Journal of Forecasting, and the International Symposium on Forecasting. He is the author of Long-Range Forecasting (1985). He is the editor of Principles of Forecasting (2001), which summarizes reviews of evidence on forecasting methods compiled by 40 leading experts from various disciplines. Thesummaries were reviewed by 123 outside reviewers from various fields. The result was a set of 139 evidence-based principles. To date, this is the only set of evidence-based principles for forecasting. The principles are updated on forecasting principles.com. Forecasts of global warming have been found to violate most of these principles. Full-text versions of his papers on climate change forecasting areavailable at publicpolicyforecasting.com.In 2007, he proposed a bet with Al Gore that he could more accurately predict climate change by simply predicting no change. While Mr. Gore refused to take the bet, theclimatebet.com site provides monthly updates on what would have happened. At the midpoint at the end of 2012, Professor Armstrong had won four of the first five years. His book, Persuasive Advertising  (2011), provides evidence-based persuasion principles. These 195 principles, many counter-intuitive, are relevant to dealing with the global- warming movement.

Bioweapons: The Bad and the Ugly (There Is No Good). Lee D. Hieb, MD

From Doctors for Disaster Preparedness 31st Annual Meeting, July 13, 2013, Houston, Texas.

Dr. Lee Hieb began her career in medicine at age four, accompanying her father on house calls along the back roads of Iowa. She graduated from the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry in Rochester New York, and completed an orthopaedic residency in the U.S. Navy. After serving as a general orthopaedic surgeon in the Navy, she returned to Rochester where she was the only woman to be appointed as the Louis A. Goldstein fellow of spinal surgery. Dr. Hieb has been in private practice for more than 25 years, and this experience has led her to become an outspoken advocate for free-market solutions. Dr. Hieb has served on the board of the Arizona Medical Association, and is a past president of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons and a member of Alpha Omega Alpha Honor Medical Society.

The Ten Tests to Determine Whether You Should Be Concerned about Global Warming

Presentation by Anthony Watts of http://wattsupwiththat.com/. From DDP 31st Annual Meeting, July 13, 2014, Houston Texas.

Anthony Watts is a 25-year broadcast meteorology veteran and currently chief meteorologist for KPAY-AM radio. He got his start as on-air meteorologist for WLFI-TV in Lafayette, Indiana and at KHSL-TV in Chico, California. In 1987, he founded ItWorks, which supplies broadcast graphics systems to hundreds of cable television, television, and radio stations nationwide. ItWorks supplies custom weather stations, Internet servers, weather graphics content, and broadcast video equipment. He also provides weather stations and custom weather monitoring solutions via www.weathershop.com and www.tempelert.com, and turnkey weather channels. In 2007, Watts founded SurfaceStations.org, a Web site devoted to photographing and documenting the quality of weather stations across the U.S. He is the author of Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?

Is War Imminent?

DDP Newsletter, March 2013, Volume XXXI, No. 2

North Korea has published images in local newspapers with a missile strike plan against the U.S. mainland in the background, and claimed on the BBC that it has rockets poised to attack U.S. targets (http://tinyurl.com/d65c45a;  http://tinyurl.com/d3m4abo). It has cut off its “hotline” with South Korea, moved ballistic missiles to the coast, and warned foreigners to evacuate both Pyongyang and South Korea. Continue reading “Is War Imminent?”

DDP 31st Annual Meeting

Science and Common Sense v. Alarmism and Disaster

July 12-15, 2013  –  CLICK HERE for speaker bios

Houston Marriott South at Hobby Airport
9100 Gulf Pkwy · Houston, Texas
Group rate $84/night

CLICK HERE TO RESERVE YOUR HOTEL ROOM

or CALL (713) 943-7979 and mention DDP to get the group rate.

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER FOR MEETING

cosponsored by:
Access to Energy
Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
Physicians for Civil Defense

TRANSPORTATION

The Houston Marriott South is near Hobby Airport – HOU – (NOT Bush Intercontinental Airport) and offers a free airport shuttle from Hobby only.   AirTran, American, Southwest, Delta, and Jet Blue provide service into Houston Hobby.
Friday, July 12, 2013 

9 am-3 pm. (optional) Mass Casualty Care Course by Steven Hatfill, M.D.   (course is $100/person. Includes Lunch.)

7-9:30 pm. Welcome Reception

Saturday, July 13, 2013

7:45 am
Welcome.  Jane Orient, M.D., DDP President

8:00 am        
Five or More Failed Experiments in Measuring Global Sea Level Change. Willie Soon, Ph.D.
Dr. Soon, an astrophysicist, authored The Maunder Minimum and The Variable Sun-Earth Connection.

9:00 am        
Planning and Design of Habitats in Space and Other Extreme Environments. Larry Bell, Ph.D.
Author of Climate of Corruption, Dr. Bell is a professor of space architecture at the Univ. of Houston. He founded several high-tech enterprises.

10:15 am       
Three False Foundations of Sustainable Development. Steve Goreham.
Goreham is executive director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism.

11:15 am       
The Ten Tests to Determine Whether You Should Be Concerned about Global Warming. Anthony Watts.
A broadcast meteorologist and Al Gore target, Watts edits the world’s most popular global warming website, wattsupwiththat.com.

12:15 pm
Lunch: Pursuing the Truth on the Kennedy Assassinations. Donald W. Miller, M.D.
Dr. Miller teaches cardiac surgery at the University of Washington School of Medicine and frequently contributes to LewRockwell.com.

2:00 pm        
Bioweapons: The Bad and the Ugly (There Is No Good). Lee D. Hieb, M.D.
Dr. Hieb practices orthopaedic surgery in Iowa, specializing in spine surgery, and is a past president of AAPS.

3:00 pm        
EPA Exposed: the Economic Predation Administration. Howard Maccabee, Ph.D., M.D.
Dr. Maccabee earned a Ph.D. in nuclear physics and practices radiation oncology. He is a founder and past president of DDP.

4:00 pm
How Commercial Jets Are Made Safer (and Improving Your Own Safety and Comfort). Gordon Claycomb.
An aerospace engineer and commercial pilot, Mr. Claycomb worked at Lockheed’s Skunk Works for 20 years and consulted for 5 more yrs.

6:30 pm
Reception and Banquet. Mars in 39 Days?: the VASIMR Plasma Engine. Franklin Chang-Diaz, Ph.D.
Astronaut Chang-Diaz has been launched into space 7 times. He is President and CEO of the Ad Astra Rocket Company.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

8:00 am
Evidence-Based Forecasting for Global Warming. J. Scott Armstrong, Ph.D.
Dr. Armstrong is professor at the Univ. of Pennsylvania, author of Principles of Forecasting, and creator of forecastingprinciples.com.

9:00 am         
Why “Clean” Energy Won’t Reduce CO2 Emissions by Much. Herbert Inhaber, Ph.D.
Dr. Inhaber is president of Risk Concepts, a fellow of the American Nuclear Society, and author of 8 books and more than 150 articles.

10:15 am       
NIPCC to IPCC: Why Does Obama Continue to Prioritize Climate Change? S. Fred Singer, Ph.D.
Dr. Singer, a pioneer in rocket and satellite technology, founded NIPCC (Non-governmental IPCC), which opposes the UN IPCC.

11:15 am       
Vulnerabilities in the U.S. Financial System. Kevin D. Freeman, CFA.
Freeman is founder of Freeman Global Holdings and author of Secret Weapon and other works on economic terrorism.

12:15 pm
Lunch. Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalism and the Cult of Anti-Humanism. Robert Zubrin, Ph.D. 
Aerospace engineer Dr. Zubrin authored The Case for Mars, First Landing, How to Live on Mars, Energy Victory, and Entering Space.

2:00 pm        
Expanding “Depletable” Resources: Julian Simon Lives! Robert L. Bradley, Jr.
Dr. Bradley is CEO and founder of the Institute for Energy Research in Houston and the author of 7 books.

3:00 pm        
The Nuclear Energy Future: Thorium Reactors? Matthew Robinson.
Matthew Robinson is a Ph.D. candidate in nuclear engineering.

4:00 pm
Quashing Fake Silicosis and Lupus Epidemics and Putting out Huge Fires. Harrison Brundage.
Mr.Brundage, a retired geologist and technical writer, is recognized in Louisiana as an expert witness in geology.

 5:00 pm         Adjourn

SPECIAL ATTRACTIONS

Friday, July 12, 2013  9 am-3 pm. Course by Steven Hatfill, M.D., on mass casualty care includes hemorrhage control, rapid airway management, emergency management of penetrating chest injury, shock, and hypothermia. Any of us could be a first responder and save lives using these techniques. No previous medical training required.

Ship Channel Tour ($25/person) of the port of Houston, one of the world’s busiest industrial ports, handling 7,700 ship calls per year, Tour departs Sam Houston Boat Pavillion at 2:30 p.m. Friday. Bus will leave hotel at 1:15pm for Boat Pavillion .  Photo ID required. Experience an unforgettable waterborne voyage through one of the busiest ports in the world and learn about the industrial development on the Houston Ship Channel.

Ad Astra Rocket Factory, Professional Tour ($50/person) on Monday, July 15. 8:15am to 11:30am.  Limit is 25 persons, so reserve early! See the VASIMR plasma rocket engine, advanced superconductors, one of the world’s largest vacuum test chambers, and animations of future space exploration missions. You need not be a U.S. citizen, but the company needs to know your name and citizenship in advance.  We will depart hotel at 8:15am and will be back at the hotel no later than 11:30am.

CONTINUING MEDICAL EDUCATION

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) will supply a certificate of participation for up to 5 hours of CME credit for Friday’s course and 15 hours for the meeting. This is not accredited as AMA/ACCME “Category 1,” but is accepted in some states for at least part of the CME requirement for license renewal.

Registration Fee:  $250 for the entire seminar includes a welcome reception, a banquet, and two luncheons ($200 for each additional family member). The mass casualty course led by Steven Hatfill, M.D., (3 hours of lecture and 2 hours practice), on Friday is $100 per person. (You need not be a physician to attend.) Houston Ship Channel cruise and Ad Astra Rocket Company tours are $25 or $50 each, respectively.

2013 Forecasts

DDP Newsletter, January 2013, Volume XXXI, No. 1

It is difficult for the Met to predict precipitation in the UK because it can’t tell what the jet stream is going to do. It is impossible to make reliable predictions on the economic or political front because of the vagaries of human behavior. Yet fundamental laws will not be defied with impunity. First, let’s attempt to identify key questions. Continue reading “2013 Forecasts”

Lessons from Superstorm Sandy

DDP Newsletter, November 2012, Volume XXX, No. 6

For more than a decade, scientists and engineers at Stony Brook University in New York had argued for building storm-surge barriers in New York. When a 4.2-meter-high wall of salt water hit the city on Oct 29, all their predictions came true (Nature 11/8/12). Continue reading “Lessons from Superstorm Sandy”