March 1998 Vol. XV, No. 2

For civil defense to be advocated as our ``highest priority'' in a lead article in Foreign Affairs (Jan/Feb 1998) is a striking new development. Whether the U.S. government will take the need seriously remains to be seen. But the account of the ``New Threat of Mass Destruction'' by Richard K. Betts, Director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, is sobering indeed.

The recent ban on chemical weapons has increased the danger. If legality were of any concern to a nation intent on acquiring a capacity for mass destruction, the chemical weapons treaty would cause it to pay more attention to biological weapons, which are ``no less illegal, no harder to obtain or conceal, and far more damaging than chemical weapons.''

The danger of use of nuclear weapons is also increased. Again, treaties are no guarantee. ``The NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] will continue to impede access to fissile materials on the open market, but it will not do so in novel or more effective ways.'' Moreover, it does not address the problem of ``loose nukes.'' Many delivery mechanisms are available: aircraft, ship-launched cruise missiles, and smuggling. The chemical weapons ban increases the probability of U.S. use of nuclear weapons. As Betts observes, forswearing the use of chemical weapons practically precludes a no-first-use policy for nuclear weapons, since they become the only weapon of mass destruction (WMD) available for retaliation.

Betts notes that a host of ``minor measures'' can increase protection or recovery from the effects of WMD. Examples include: stockpiling or distribution of protective masks; equipment and training for decontamination; standby programs for mass vaccinations and emergency treatment with antibiotics; and public education about hasty sheltering. Yet, until recently, only $0.5 billion federal dollars ($2/head) went to chemical and biological defense.

``Only a small fraction of that went to defense for American civilians,'' stated Cresson Kearny, foremost U.S. expert on expedient civil defense. Kearny notes that 40,000,000 gas masks were distributed in the British Isles shortly before the Munich crisis, greatly improving Britain's ability to resist, especially since Hitler had no masks for Germans.

America's status as the ``world's only remaining superpower,'' and its ``activism to guarantee international stability,'' is, in Betts's view, ``the prime source of America's vulnerability.'' He asks whether retreat might be the best defense. ``Playing Globocop feeds the urge of aggrieved groups to strike back.'' While he does not advocate isolationism, he urges caution: ``The interest at the very core─protecting the American homeland from attack─may now often be in conflict with...the interests that mandate promoting American political values...in regions beyond Western Europe and the Americas.''

An assessment of the U.S. military situation by JKC de Courcy is sobering (Intelligence Digest 1/30/98, Stoneyhill Centre, Brimpsfield, Gloucester, GL4 8LF, UK, http://inteligence-net.com): Since 1991, the American army has been cut 44%, from 18 divisions to 10. One division is committed to Bosnian peacekeeping, with another in reserve, and three are in Korea. Army brigades lack sufficient unit commanders, mechanics, and basic infantry troops. Sub-units are not training with the commanders they would go to war with; these have been pulled away for duty on humanitarian missions. In a 1997 ``leadership assessment,'' officers in 36% of a series of focus groups said their units don't know how to fight; half of those were concerned about the army's growing ``hollow.'' In the air force, the ``mission capable'' rates for some fighter jets are more that 15% lower than in 1989.

Despite budget cuts of 30% (accounting for inflation), U.S. armed forces have been used in 36 foreign missions since 1989, compared with 22 between 1980 and 1989. Pentagon officials complain that frequent ``low intensity'' missions dilute war-fighting capability by disrupting combat training and breaking down unit cohesion.

The crisis in Iraq has shown the striking changes in the world situation since the Gulf War. DeCourcy states that an anti-American global alliance is slowing coming into being around Russia, France, and China, although it cannot yet challenge the U.S. in a meaningful way (Intelligence Digest 2/13/98). Britain is the only reliable European ally of the U.S.

In the Middle East, there is a strong increase in anti-Americanism, even in the ostensibly pro-Western states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia (Intelligence Digest 3/6/98). Israel made peace with Jordan and Egypt and partial peace with the Palestinians, ``yet in all three areas public opinion was running strongly behind Hussein, with demonstrators calling for the bombing of Tel Aviv.''

DeCourcy believes that Saddam Hussein's rule has actually served American interests well. Once he is removed, the U.S. may seen a sharp decrease in support for an American military presence─which is one of the main factors preventing Iran from becoming the undisputed leader of the Islamic world (Intelligence Digest 2/20/98). In pursuit of that goal, Iran is the most vigorous in calling for the return of Jerusalem to Islamic rule.

In the Far East, the U.S. has asked Japan to prepare to care for as many as 120,000 casualties within the first month of an outbreak of fighting on the Korean peninsula. Various defectors have revealed North Korean plans to launch a lightning attack on the South. Because of the forward deployment of the North Korean army, U.S. military planners take the threat seriously (Intelligence Digest 12/5/97).

China has stepped up military preparations to invade or blockade Taiwan. Hand-picked ground-force units are being trained in sea-crossing offensive capabilities. Armored troops in north-east China, whose previous mission was to defend against a land attack by the Soviet Union, have been training in amphibious warfare for two years. The armored cavalry, with the best-armed troops in China, can now rapidly embark its tanks and self-propelled guns onto roll-on roll-off ships. At the same time, an air-borne force has been developed, naval capabilities expanded, and air cover has been extended in the South China Sea (Intelligence Digest 3/13/98).

Communism still reigns in China, as shown in its stepped up campaign of religious persecution. The incredible growth in adherence to Christianity since 1978 (some missionary sources say they are as many as 50 million Christians in China) is seen as a Trojan horse to bring Western-style human rights to China. Beijing believes that a religious revival played an important role in the downfall of Communism in Eastern Europe. Of special concern is the growth of ``superstition'' in the cadres of the Chinese Communist Party.

``The only belief for a communist is dialectical materialism. The God or Buddha in the heart of a communist, if there is one, is the masses'' stated an article in Jiefang Ribao of Shanghai (Intelligence Digest 2/27/98).

While attention is focused on Iraq, the broader problem of CBW worldwide is largely unremarked. In a March 10, 1998, article in the Wall Street Journal, Joseph Douglass, author of America the Vulnerable: the Threat of Chemical and Biological Warfare, Lexington Books, 1987, writes: ``In the long run, the Russian threat is far worse than the Iraqi one. While it's true that the current leadership in Moscow does not display Saddam's brutality, the Russian leadership could change overnight.''

Russian defector Kanatjan Alibekov, director of Biopreparat until 1992, told ABC's Prime Time Live that even after the end of the Cold War, Biopreparat employed more than 25,000 engineers, technicians, and scientists to develop biological weapons, in blatant violations of arms control treaties signed by Moscow. The facility had developed 52 biological agents before 1992 and had ballistic missile warheads loaded with plague, anthrax, and smallpox for delivery against American cities.

Douglass states that CIA reports on such activities have been ignored or suppressed by the U.S. government.

The Prime Time Live program left out many things, according to Douglass: the use of genetic engineering; the development of a form of anthrax reportedly resistant to U.S. vaccines; allegations that experimental agents were tested successfully against U.S. and South Vietnamese bases during the Vietnam war; assassination weapons that mimic natural diseases; the development of agents that are disabling but not lethal.

Communist use of American POWs, both in Korea and Vietnam, as experimental subjects for CBW agents, was recently reviewed by Dr. Russell Blaylock in The Medical Sentinel, the official journal of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, Summer and Fall issues, 1997 (PO Box 13648, Macon, GA 31208, (912)757-9873).

``When the American POWs returned from captivity in Vietnam, military authorities noticed there were no amputees....With over 2000 men in captivity, one would expect at least a few amputees. But in light of what is known about the Soviet experimental program, it now makes a lot more sense. Most likely, these men were used either for military experiments or for training young surgeons. As in North Korea, once the procedures were completed, the `experimental subjects' were killed and the bodies incinerated.''