The report addresses a vexing body of evidence that the temperature of the earth's low- to mid-troposphere is not increasing. This is an extremely important discrepancy because climate models relied on by drafters of the Kyoto Treaty generally predict that ``temperatures should increase in the upper air as well as at the surface if increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing the warming'' (NRC press release 1/12/2000).
The main focus of the 84-page report by an 11-member scientific panel is to review and reassess old evidence in an effort to resolve the discord between global climate theory and actual observations, partly by ``correcting'' the data.
The executive summary acknowledges the need to consider ``the contribution of natural climate variability to decade-to-decade climate changes.'' It even mentions the sun as one of three external factors that can influence climate (volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases are the others). Solar variability is alluded to four times, but in a purely qualitative sense. The graphs showing excellent correlation between solar magnetic cycle length and the earth's temperature are neither shown nor referenced.
Century-to-century climate changes (as in Ice Ages and the Medieval Climate Optimum) are ignored; no graphs go back further than 1880.
There is indisputably at least one human-caused effect in the surface temperature record: land-use changes such as urbanization, producing the heat island effect (which global warmers will now have to acknowledge). Weather stations tend to be located near population centers, producing biased data. Many areas are sparsely covered, and there is actually less land station coverage than in 1990.
The panel considers removing the data determined to be ``erroneous'' and ``adjusting'' biased data to account for inhomogeneities. But what of the possibility of biased scientists whose research funding depends on ``finding'' global warming?
Satellite-based Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) provide vast quantities of data (more than 15,000 measurements per day) and have truly global coverage. After applying numerous corrections, as for orbital drift, radiometer gain, and diurnal drift, the fact remains: Tropospheric temperature has changed so little over 20 years that a different sign for the trend is obtained, depending upon whether or not the final year of the record is included-a year that was extraordinarily warm in the wake of the exceptionally strong 1997-98 El Niņo. Panel members who wish to discount the significance of the satellite data note that the discrepancy with surface data might be explained ``if the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 were stronger and longer lasting than that of El Chichon in 1982'' [emphasis added].
The standard deviation of 0.2 to 0.3 ?C over 20 years in a globally averaged temperature time series ``makes it difficult to establish long-term temperature trends using a 20-year period,'' states the report. Yet the surface temperature trend over the past 20 years-an upward trend of between 0.25 to 0.4 ?C, depending on which data set or curve-fitting method is used-is precisely the information being used to sell Kyoto.
An ``ensemble of simulations'' run with the climate model (``computationally intensive numerical experiments'') has yielded a ``number of different possible scenarios.'' Yet, ``model- observation discrepancies indicate that the definitive model experiments have not yet been done.'' The panel concludes: the observed disparity between surface and satellite measurements is ``probably at least partially real.''
In other words, the adjusted real-world observations still don't agree with the global warmers' predictions. The panel further concludes that ``major advances'' in scientific methods will be necessary before important questions can be resolved.
The bottom line in the report is a plea for more research money, apparently to prove the admittedly problematic theory that Kyoto already assumes to be fact. Conclusions that readers can draw for themselves: (1) There is still no proof that the relatively benign climate now enjoyed by the earth (as compared with 1880) has anything to do with human activity and (2) The predictions of global climate catastrophe made by global warmers have been refuted, even if the 300-year warming trend continues.
You can read or search Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change on line at www.nap.edu/catalog/9755.html or order a print copy from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Ave, NW, Box 285, Washington, DC 20055, (800) 624-6242. Nothing in this report invalidates the review of the evidence relevant to global warming and the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by Robinson et al., Medical Sentinel Sept/Oct 1998 (also available at www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm). An excellent review of the NRC report by Arthur and Noah Robinson appeared in The Wall Street Journal, 1/18/2000, p. A26.
In May, 1999, Evan DeLucia and ten colleagues published an article in Science showing the fertilizing effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on the Loblolly pine. In a letter to the editor, Bert Bolin, first head of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wrote: ``In the current, post-Kyoto international political climate, scientific statements about the behavior of the terrestrial carbon cycle must be made with care...'' Translation by Patrick Michaels: ``Scientists had better consider NOT publishing results that might undermine support for Kyoto. Signed, the Boss.'' The IPCC's former chief scientist Sir John Houghton wrote in 1996 that climate change is a ``moral issue.'' He said that he agreed with the World Council of Churches, ``which calls upon the Government to adopt firm, clear policies and targets [read: Kyoto], and the public to accept the necessary consequences.'' The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will ``contribute powerfully to the material salvation of the planet from mankind's greed and indifference.''
Michaels states: ``This is the chilled environment in which the secular scientist now works. Leaders of the world's premier scientific organizations on climate change now publicly call for the suppression of research findings and invoke religion, and not science, as the basis for policy'' www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/kyotoseffects.htm
In December, 1999, seven ``environmental'' groups released a worldwide map with more than 100 anecdotes and reports of scientific studies that purport to prove that global warming is on our doorstep. ``They've cooked their books,'' writes David Mastio (USA Today 12/16/99), and ``their map is as much a big lie as any created by a Soviet-era dictator.'' For example, the breakup of the West Antarctic ice sheet is hardly proof of global warming, as the sheet has been retreating by several hundred feet per year for more than 7,000 years. While some glaciers in Greenland are melting, other, more important ones are expanding. Is global warming responsible for tropical diseases in the United States? In 1793, an outbreak of yellow fever killed thousands in Philadelphia. Noah Webster collected observations from numerous physicians and used them to promote improved sanitation.
Mark your calendars: the 18th annual meeting of DDP will be held at the San Francisco Airport Marriott June 30-July 2, 2000.
DDP, 1601 N. Tucson Blvd. Suite 9, Tucson, AZ 85716, (520)325-2680, www.oism.org/ddp.