Climate Watch: Unprecedented High Temperatures?

I hope you are able to find a respite from the heat. We’ve had “excessive heat” warnings in Tucson for several days straight.

But as the graph shows, it is not unprecedented. U.S. maximum temperatures in June 1933 were higher. Of course, one can argue that it was just “weather” then, owing to Dust Bowl conditions, but it is “climate change” now. (Note that connecting two points, as in the graph, does not make a trend. The direction of a trend depends on the starting and stopping points. If we started in 1776, near the end of the Little Ice Age, it is definitely warmer now.)

The mean of maximum U.S. temperatures as guesstimated by NOAA has been fluctuating between about 78 and 86 degrees F. Many factors contribute to these differences of about 8 degrees. The gradual small rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has nothing to do with them.

Heat waves are a serious problem for people who live in cities. The urban heat island (UHI) effect can raise temperatures 10 or more degrees above what they would be in the countryside. Increasing urbanization likely accounts for 40 percent of reported warming. The ways to mitigate it do not involve reducing “carbon footprints.” Increasing green spaces, rooftop gardens, reflective roofing materials, and permeable pavements are helpful measures.

Looking at global rather than U.S. temperatures in the graph below, we see that there is a big spike in 2024. This is explained by the 2022 eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai, which injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor, from 146 trillion grams (40 billion gallons) of water, into the stratosphere. This is equal to about 10 percent of the water vapor normally present there. Water vapor is by far the most important “greenhouse gas.”

Local factors and natural phenomena affect the weather and the climate—while the mainstream media only reports  about carbon dioxide, which is at most a minor contributor.

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